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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 25
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $156.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $172.00
LOW: $143.00
MEDIAN: $154.00
CONSENSUS: $156.29
UPSIDE: 15.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.3% above fair value
Current Price $135.86
Bear Case $98.84 27.2% downside ($98.84 - $135.86) / $135.86 = -27.2% $7.06 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $112.96 16.9% downside ($112.96 - $135.86) / $135.86 = -16.9% $7.06 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $127.08 6.5% downside ($127.08 - $135.86) / $135.86 = -6.5% $7.06 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
7.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.06, the base-case value is $112.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $209.66.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $156.29
Analyst Range $143.00 – $172.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $209.66 (above our primary estimate by 86%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $156.29 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples