Dynatrace, Inc. logo DT - Dynatrace, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $51.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $44.29
UPSIDE: 7.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.8% below fair value
Current Price $41.21
Bear Case $37.45 9.1% downside ($37.45 - $41.21) / $41.21 = -9.1% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $58.70 42.4% upside ($58.70 - $41.21) / $41.21 = 42.4% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $82.97 101.3% upside ($82.97 - $41.21) / $41.21 = 101.3% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 20.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.29 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.70 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $44.29 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions