Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. logo DSGR - Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 1.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 170.6% above fair value
Current Price $34.63
Bear Case $1.39 96.0% downside ($1.39 - $34.63) / $34.63 = -96.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $12.80 63.0% downside ($12.80 - $34.63) / $34.63 = -63.0% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $25.99 24.9% downside ($25.99 - $34.63) / $34.63 = -24.9% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 61.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.9% vs our 16.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.80 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 80% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions