Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. logo DSGR - Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $33.00
MEDIAN: $33.00
CONSENSUS: $33.00
UPSIDE: 22.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 110.7% above fair value
Current Price $27.00
Bear Case $1.39 94.9% downside ($1.39 - $27.00) / $27.00 = -94.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $12.81 52.5% downside ($12.81 - $27.00) / $27.00 = -52.5% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $26.03 3.6% downside ($26.03 - $27.00) / $27.00 = -3.6% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 52.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.81 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 80% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions