Leonardo DRS, Inc. logo DRS - Leonardo DRS, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $53.33
UPSIDE: 18.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.2% above fair value
Current Price $44.92
Bear Case $24.14 46.3% downside ($24.14 - $44.92) / $44.92 = -46.3% $1.03 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $29.32 34.7% downside ($29.32 - $44.92) / $44.92 = -34.7% $1.03 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $34.50 23.2% downside ($34.50 - $44.92) / $44.92 = -23.2% $1.03 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
1.03$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.03)

Implied Market Multiple 43.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.33 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.32 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 8.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $53.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing