Amdocs Limited logo DOX - Amdocs Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $81.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $92.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $81.50
CONSENSUS: $81.50
UPSIDE: 30.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.4% below fair value
Current Price $62.66
Bear Case $88.08 40.6% upside ($88.08 - $62.66) / $62.66 = 40.6% $5.17 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $105.20 67.9% upside ($105.20 - $62.66) / $62.66 = 67.9% $5.17 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $122.33 95.2% upside ($122.33 - $62.66) / $62.66 = 95.2% $5.17 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
5.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $81.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.20 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $904.65 (above our primary estimate by 714%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $81.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples