DOX - Amdocs Limited
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$81.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$92.00
LOW:
$71.00
MEDIAN:
$81.50
CONSENSUS:
$81.50
UPSIDE:
30.07%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
5.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $81.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.20 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $904.65 (above our primary estimate by 714%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $81.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples