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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $71.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $71.00
UPSIDE: 14.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.7% below fair value
Current Price $62.21
Bear Case $90.90 46.1% upside ($90.90 - $62.21) / $62.21 = 46.1% $5.05 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $108.58 74.5% upside ($108.58 - $62.21) / $62.21 = 74.5% $5.05 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $126.25 102.9% upside ($126.25 - $62.21) / $62.21 = 102.9% $5.05 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
5.05$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.05, the base-case value is $108.58 per share. DDM cross-check: $695.47.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $71.00
Analyst Range $71.00 – $71.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $695.47 (above our primary estimate by 541%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples