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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 20
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $37.00
CONSENSUS: $36.25
UPSIDE: 24.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.7% below fair value
Current Price $29.03
Bear Case $36.10 24.3% upside ($36.10 - $29.03) / $29.03 = 24.3% $3.26 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $45.13 55.4% upside ($45.13 - $29.03) / $29.03 = 55.4% $3.26 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $54.15 86.5% upside ($54.15 - $29.03) / $29.03 = 86.5% $3.26 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.25 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.13 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $36.25 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples