Doximity, Inc. logo DOCS - Doximity, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $41.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $27.73
DOWNSIDE: 16.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.9% above fair value
Current Price $33.39
Bear Case $22.62 32.3% downside ($22.62 - $33.39) / $33.39 = -32.3% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $27.39 18.0% downside ($27.39 - $33.39) / $33.39 = -18.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $31.82 4.7% downside ($31.82 - $33.39) / $33.39 = -4.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 23.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.9% vs our 7.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.39 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (24 analysts) $27.73
Analyst Range $18.00 – $41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 1%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 62% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions