Doximity, Inc. logo DOCS - Doximity, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 9
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.47 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $29.47
UPSIDE: 47.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.6% below fair value
Current Price $19.94
Bear Case $17.08 14.3% downside ($17.08 - $19.94) / $19.94 = -14.3% $0.99 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $21.35 7.1% upside ($21.35 - $19.94) / $19.94 = 7.1% $0.99 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $25.63 28.5% upside ($25.63 - $19.94) / $19.94 = 28.5% $0.99 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.8x
0.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.47 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.47 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples