Doximity, Inc. logo DOCS - Doximity, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $25.50
CONSENSUS: $27.63
UPSIDE: 35.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.6% below fair value
Current Price $20.42
Bear Case $21.17 3.7% upside ($21.17 - $20.42) / $20.42 = 3.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $24.47 19.8% upside ($24.47 - $20.42) / $20.42 = 19.8% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $27.40 34.2% upside ($27.40 - $20.42) / $20.42 = 34.2% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 13.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.8% vs our 6.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.63 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.47 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 62% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions