Healthpeak Properties, Inc. logo DOC - Healthpeak Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.14
DOWNSIDE: 2.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.2% below fair value
Current Price $22.60
Bear Case $19.72 12.8% downside ($19.72 - $22.60) / $22.60 = -12.8% $1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $25.16 11.3% upside ($25.16 - $22.60) / $22.60 = 11.3% $1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $30.59 35.3% upside ($30.59 - $22.60) / $22.60 = 35.3% $1.64 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.1x
1.64$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.14 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.16 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.8% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify