Healthpeak Properties, Inc. logo DOC - Healthpeak Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 22
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 19.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.0% below fair value
Current Price $18.48
Bear Case $20.12 8.9% upside ($20.12 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 8.9% $1.59 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $25.66 38.8% upside ($25.66 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 38.8% $1.59 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $31.19 68.8% upside ($31.19 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 68.8% $1.59 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.1x
1.59$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.59) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.59 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $25.66 per share. Dividend yield: 2.2%. DDM cross-check: $7.58.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $22.00
Analyst Range $20.00 – $24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 17%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify