Healthpeak Properties, Inc. logo DOC - Healthpeak Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 19
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.43
DOWNSIDE: 7.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.5% below fair value
Current Price $19.84
Bear Case $18.84 5.0% downside ($18.84 - $19.84) / $19.84 = -5.0% $1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $24.04 21.2% upside ($24.04 - $19.84) / $19.84 = 21.2% $1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $29.23 47.4% upside ($29.23 - $19.84) / $19.84 = 47.4% $1.64 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.1x
1.64$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.43 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.04 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.43 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify