Healthpeak Properties, Inc. logo DOC - Healthpeak Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 21
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $22.50
CONSENSUS: $22.38
UPSIDE: 8.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.9% below fair value
Current Price $20.65
Bear Case $20.73 0.4% upside ($20.73 - $20.65) / $20.65 = 0.4% $1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $26.45 28.1% upside ($26.45 - $20.65) / $20.65 = 28.1% $1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $32.16 55.7% upside ($32.16 - $20.65) / $20.65 = 55.7% $1.64 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.1x
1.64$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.64 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $26.45 per share. Dividend yield: 2.0%. DDM cross-check: $7.58.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $22.38
Analyst Range $19.00 – $24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 2.0% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify