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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 48.9% above fair value
Current Price $28.73
Bear Case $15.44 46.3% downside ($15.44 - $28.73) / $28.73 = -46.3% $1.93 × 8x P/E
Fair Value $19.30 32.8% downside ($19.30 - $28.73) / $28.73 = -32.8% $1.93 × 10x P/E
Bull Case $23.16 19.4% downside ($23.16 - $28.73) / $28.73 = -19.4% $1.93 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

10.0x
1.93$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.93, the base-case value is $19.30 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples