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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 18.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.4% below fair value
Current Price $22.83
Bear Case $21.60 5.4% downside ($21.60 - $22.83) / $22.83 = -5.4% $1.80 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $27.00 18.3% upside ($27.00 - $22.83) / $22.83 = 18.3% $1.80 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $32.40 41.9% upside ($32.40 - $22.83) / $22.83 = 41.9% $1.80 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.80, the base-case value is $27.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $27.00
Analyst Range $27.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 0%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples