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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $31.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $31.00
UPSIDE: 33.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.1% below fair value
Current Price $23.18
Bear Case $21.60 6.8% downside ($21.60 - $23.18) / $23.18 = -6.8% $1.80 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $27.00 16.5% upside ($27.00 - $23.18) / $23.18 = 16.5% $1.80 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $32.40 39.8% upside ($32.40 - $23.18) / $23.18 = 39.8% $1.80 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.80, the base-case value is $27.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $31.00
Analyst Range $31.00 – $31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples