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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 3.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.9% below fair value
Current Price $26.05
Bear Case $26.70 2.5% upside ($26.70 - $26.05) / $26.05 = 2.5% $2.33 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $33.38 28.1% upside ($33.38 - $26.05) / $26.05 = 28.1% $2.33 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $40.05 53.7% upside ($40.05 - $26.05) / $26.05 = 53.7% $2.33 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.38 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples