Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. logo DJT - Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.5% above fair value
Current Price $6.99
Bear Case $2.56 63.3% downside ($2.56 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -63.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $3.92 44.0% downside ($3.92 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -44.0% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $5.61 19.8% downside ($5.61 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -19.8% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 78.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 29.5% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.92 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions