Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. logo DJT - Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 130.5% above fair value
Current Price $9.06
Bear Case $2.57 71.6% downside ($2.57 - $9.06) / $9.06 = -71.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $3.93 56.6% downside ($3.93 - $9.06) / $9.06 = -56.6% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $5.63 37.9% downside ($5.63 - $9.06) / $9.06 = -37.9% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 105.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 33.5% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.93 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions