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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.5% below fair value
Current Price $473.28
Bear Case $523.54 10.6% upside ($523.54 - $473.28) / $473.28 = 10.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $594.99 25.7% upside ($594.99 - $473.28) / $473.28 = 25.7% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $668.69 41.3% upside ($668.69 - $473.28) / $473.28 = 41.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $594.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions