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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.0% above fair value
Current Price $644.56
Bear Case $536.61 16.7% downside ($536.61 - $644.56) / $644.56 = -16.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $613.64 4.8% downside ($613.64 - $644.56) / $644.56 = -4.8% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $693.09 7.5% upside ($693.09 - $644.56) / $644.56 = 7.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 27.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.4% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $613.64 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions