Dine Brands Global, Inc. logo DIN - Dine Brands Global, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $28.00
DOWNSIDE: 22.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.0% below fair value
Current Price $36.36
Bear Case $58.71 61.5% upside ($58.71 - $36.36) / $36.36 = 61.5% $5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $71.28 96.0% upside ($71.28 - $36.36) / $36.36 = 96.0% $5.04 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $83.87 130.7% upside ($83.87 - $36.36) / $36.36 = 130.7% $5.04 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.28 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 350%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 206% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples