Dine Brands Global, Inc. logo DIN - Dine Brands Global, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $32.33
UPSIDE: 6.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 58.0% below fair value
Current Price $30.37
Bear Case $59.60 96.2% upside ($59.60 - $30.37) / $30.37 = 96.2% $5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $72.36 138.3% upside ($72.36 - $30.37) / $30.37 = 138.3% $5.04 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $85.14 180.3% upside ($85.14 - $30.37) / $30.37 = 180.3% $5.04 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.33 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.36 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 350%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.33 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 165% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples