DHT Holdings, Inc. logo DHT - DHT Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $12.07 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $3.30
MEDIAN: $13.50
CONSENSUS: $12.07
DOWNSIDE: 45.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.0% above fair value
Current Price $22.00
Bear Case $15.72 28.5% downside ($15.72 - $22.00) / $22.00 = -28.5% $1.31 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $19.65 10.7% downside ($19.65 - $22.00) / $22.00 = -10.7% $1.31 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $23.58 7.2% upside ($23.58 - $22.00) / $22.00 = 7.2% $1.31 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.31, the base-case value is $19.65 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $12.07
Analyst Range $3.30 – $18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

The company pays out 187% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.07 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples