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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 29
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $221.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $249.00
LOW: $195.00
MEDIAN: $225.00
CONSENSUS: $221.58
UPSIDE: 2.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 125.8% above fair value
Current Price $216.07
Bear Case $76.56 64.6% downside ($76.56 - $216.07) / $216.07 = -64.6% $6.38 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $95.70 55.7% downside ($95.70 - $216.07) / $216.07 = -55.7% $6.38 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $114.84 46.9% downside ($114.84 - $216.07) / $216.07 = -46.9% $6.38 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.38, the base-case value is $95.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $221.58
Analyst Range $195.00 – $249.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $221.58 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples