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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 29
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $231.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $250.00
LOW: $195.00
MEDIAN: $235.00
CONSENSUS: $231.00
UPSIDE: 2.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 134.5% above fair value
Current Price $224.42
Bear Case $76.56 65.9% downside ($76.56 - $224.42) / $224.42 = -65.9% $6.38 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $95.70 57.4% downside ($95.70 - $224.42) / $224.42 = -57.4% $6.38 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $114.84 48.8% downside ($114.84 - $224.42) / $224.42 = -48.8% $6.38 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.38, the base-case value is $95.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $231.00
Analyst Range $195.00 – $250.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 59%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $231.00 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples