Quest Diagnostics Incorporated logo DGX - Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $244.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $225.00
MEDIAN: $247.50
CONSENSUS: $244.50
DOWNSIDE: 0.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.7% above fair value
Current Price $245.00
Bear Case $105.00 57.1% downside ($105.00 - $245.00) / $245.00 = -57.1% $8.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $131.25 46.4% downside ($131.25 - $245.00) / $245.00 = -46.4% $8.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $157.50 35.7% downside ($157.50 - $245.00) / $245.00 = -35.7% $8.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
8.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.75, the base-case value is $131.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $121.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $244.50
Analyst Range $225.00 – $260.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 46%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $244.50 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples