Quest Diagnostics Incorporated logo DGX - Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $220.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $235.00
LOW: $210.00
MEDIAN: $220.00
CONSENSUS: $220.57
UPSIDE: 14.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.4% above fair value
Current Price $192.79
Bear Case $135.98 29.5% downside ($135.98 - $192.79) / $192.79 = -29.5% $9.89 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $169.98 11.8% downside ($169.98 - $192.79) / $192.79 = -11.8% $9.89 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $203.98 5.8% upside ($203.98 - $192.79) / $192.79 = 5.8% $9.89 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.89$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $220.57 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.98 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $220.57 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples