Digi International Inc. logo DGII - Digi International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $72.50
CONSENSUS: $70.75
UPSIDE: 7.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.8% below fair value
Current Price $66.09
Bear Case $50.59 23.5% downside ($50.59 - $66.09) / $66.09 = -23.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $91.55 38.5% upside ($91.55 - $66.09) / $66.09 = 38.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $141.39 113.9% upside ($141.39 - $66.09) / $66.09 = 113.9% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.6% vs our 18.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.75 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.55 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.75 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions