Dream Finders Homes, Inc. logo DFH - Dream Finders Homes, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $38.00
UPSIDE: 160.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.5% below fair value
Current Price $14.59
Bear Case $28.65 96.4% upside ($28.65 - $14.59) / $14.59 = 96.4% $2.32 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $37.94 160.0% upside ($37.94 - $14.59) / $14.59 = 160.0% $2.32 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $47.22 223.6% upside ($47.22 - $14.59) / $14.59 = 223.6% $2.32 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
2.32$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.32)

Implied Market Multiple 6.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.94 per share.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing