DEI - Douglas Emmett, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$11.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$12.00
LOW:
$11.00
MEDIAN:
$11.50
CONSENSUS:
$11.50
UPSIDE:
0.35%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.48) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
4.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.22 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.16 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify