Douglas Emmett, Inc. logo DEI - Douglas Emmett, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 22
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $12.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $11.50
CONSENSUS: $11.50
UPSIDE: 0.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.4% below fair value
Current Price $11.46
Bear Case $17.37 51.6% upside ($17.37 - $11.46) / $11.46 = 51.6% $2.48 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $22.22 93.9% upside ($22.22 - $11.46) / $11.46 = 93.9% $2.48 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $27.06 136.1% upside ($27.06 - $11.46) / $11.46 = 136.1% $2.48 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
2.48$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.48) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.22 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.16 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify