Easterly Government Properties, Inc. logo DEA - Easterly Government Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
UPSIDE: 3.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.5% below fair value
Current Price $25.03
Bear Case $27.32 9.1% upside ($27.32 - $25.03) / $25.03 = 9.1% $2.73 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $35.52 41.9% upside ($35.52 - $25.03) / $25.03 = 41.9% $2.73 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $43.71 74.6% upside ($43.71 - $25.03) / $25.03 = 74.6% $2.73 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
2.73$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.73) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.73 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $35.52 per share. Dividend yield: 7.2%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $26.00
Analyst Range $24.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify