DEA - Easterly Government Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.41
DETAILS
HIGH:
$26.45
LOW:
$11.00
MEDIAN:
$14.00
CONSENSUS:
$16.41
DOWNSIDE:
31.82%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.73) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.41 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.70 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.41 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify