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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $5.00
MEDIAN: $5.50
CONSENSUS: $5.50
UPSIDE: 70.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.2% above fair value
Current Price $3.23
Bear Case $2.28 29.3% downside ($2.28 - $3.23) / $3.23 = -29.3% $0.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $2.85 11.6% downside ($2.85 - $3.23) / $3.23 = -11.6% $0.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.42 6.0% upside ($3.42 - $3.23) / $3.23 = 6.0% $0.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.19, the base-case value is $2.85 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $5.50
Analyst Range $5.00 – $6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples