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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.00
UPSIDE: 110.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.2% below fair value
Current Price $2.85
Bear Case $2.28 19.9% downside ($2.28 - $2.85) / $2.85 = -19.9% $0.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $2.85 0.2% upside ($2.85 - $2.85) / $2.85 = 0.2% $0.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.42 20.2% upside ($3.42 - $2.85) / $2.85 = 20.2% $0.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.19, the base-case value is $2.85 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $6.00
Analyst Range $6.00 – $6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $6.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples