DCOM - Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$39.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$43.00
LOW:
$36.00
MEDIAN:
$39.50
CONSENSUS:
$39.50
UPSIDE:
7.05%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
8.4%
9.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.24x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.50 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.4%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.26 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly