Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. logo DCOM - Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 4.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 58.2% above fair value
Current Price $41.25
Bear Case $18.25 55.8% downside ($18.25 - $41.25) / $41.25 = -55.8% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $26.07 36.8% downside ($26.07 - $41.25) / $41.25 = -36.8% ROTCE 8.4% → 0.77x TBV
Bull Case $33.89 17.8% downside ($33.89 - $41.25) / $41.25 = -17.8% ROTCE 9.7% → 0.99x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.38x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.4% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.77x on $29.86 tangible book, implying $26.07 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.29.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $43.00
Analyst Range $43.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 39%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.4%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.29 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly