Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. logo DCOM - Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $39.50
CONSENSUS: $39.50
UPSIDE: 7.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.3% above fair value
Current Price $36.90
Bear Case $20.13 45.4% downside ($20.13 - $36.90) / $36.90 = -45.4% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $28.76 22.1% downside ($28.76 - $36.90) / $36.90 = -22.1% ROTCE 8.4% → 0.76x TBV
Bull Case $37.38 1.3% upside ($37.38 - $36.90) / $36.90 = 1.3% ROTCE 9.7% → 0.98x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.24x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.50 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.76 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.4%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.26 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly