Dauch Corp. logo DCH - Dauch Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $8.75
UPSIDE: 25.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 773.8% above fair value
Current Price $6.99
Bear Case $0.70 90.0% downside ($0.70 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -90.0% $0.05 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $0.80 88.6% downside ($0.80 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -88.6% $0.05 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $0.90 87.1% downside ($0.90 - $6.99) / $6.99 = -87.1% $0.05 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.05$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 139.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.05, the base-case value is $0.80 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $8.75
Analyst Range $6.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 91%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $8.75 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples