DCH - Dauch Corp.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$8.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$11.00
LOW:
$6.00
MEDIAN:
$9.00
CONSENSUS:
$8.75
UPSIDE:
25.18%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.05$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
139.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.05, the base-case value is $0.80 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$8.75
Analyst Range
$6.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.75 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples