Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated logo DBD - Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $100.00
UPSIDE: 10.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.5% below fair value
Current Price $90.75
Bear Case $136.94 50.9% upside ($136.94 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 50.9% $8.35 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $163.56 80.2% upside ($163.56 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 80.2% $8.35 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $190.19 109.6% upside ($190.19 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 109.6% $8.35 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
8.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.56 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 229%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $100.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples