Deutsche Bank AG logo DB - Deutsche Bank AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 19
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 23.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.7% below fair value
Current Price $34.84
Bear Case $24.68 29.1% downside ($24.68 - $34.84) / $34.84 = -29.1% ROTCE 7.3% → 0.58x TBV
Fair Value $42.83 23.0% upside ($42.83 - $34.84) / $34.84 = 23.0% ROTCE 9.8% → 1.01x TBV
Bull Case $53.73 54.2% upside ($53.73 - $34.84) / $34.84 = 54.2% ROTCE 11.2% → 1.27x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.82x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.83 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1410 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly