DB - Deutsche Bank AG
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$43.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$43.00
LOW:
$43.00
MEDIAN:
$43.00
CONSENSUS:
$43.00
UPSIDE:
22.96%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
9.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.82x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 9.8% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.99x on $42.58 tangible book, implying $42.14 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$43.00
Analyst Range
$43.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.8%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1256 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly