Darling Ingredients Inc. logo DAR - Darling Ingredients Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $57.00
MEDIAN: $64.00
CONSENSUS: $64.86
UPSIDE: 6.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.4% below fair value
Current Price $60.83
Bear Case $61.35 0.9% upside ($61.35 - $60.83) / $60.83 = 0.9% $3.90 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $74.50 22.5% upside ($74.50 - $60.83) / $60.83 = 22.5% $3.90 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $87.65 44.1% upside ($87.65 - $60.83) / $60.83 = 44.1% $3.90 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.9x
3.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.86 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.50 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 900%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples