Darling Ingredients Inc. logo DAR - Darling Ingredients Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $70.00
UPSIDE: 11.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.5% below fair value
Current Price $62.58
Bear Case $64.00 2.3% upside ($64.00 - $62.58) / $62.58 = 2.3% $3.90 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $77.72 24.2% upside ($77.72 - $62.58) / $62.58 = 24.2% $3.90 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $91.43 46.1% upside ($91.43 - $62.58) / $62.58 = 46.1% $3.90 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.9x
3.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.90, the base-case value is $77.72 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $70.00
Analyst Range $65.00 – $75.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 900%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples