Dominion Energy, Inc. logo D - Dominion Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 19
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $71.56
UPSIDE: 8.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.0% above fair value
Current Price $66.22
Bear Case $48.30 27.1% downside ($48.30 - $66.22) / $66.22 = -27.1% $3.45 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $55.20 16.6% downside ($55.20 - $66.22) / $66.22 = -16.6% $3.45 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $62.10 6.2% downside ($62.10 - $66.22) / $66.22 = -6.2% $3.45 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.45, the base-case value is $55.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $38.52.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $71.56
Analyst Range $66.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $38.52 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples