Citizens & Northern Corporation logo CZNC - Citizens & Northern Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $23.50
LOW: $23.50
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
UPSIDE: 11.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.0% below fair value
Current Price $21.07
Bear Case $14.24 32.4% downside ($14.24 - $21.07) / $21.07 = -32.4% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.96x TBV
Fair Value $26.33 25.0% upside ($26.33 - $21.07) / $21.07 = 25.0% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.77x TBV
Bull Case $33.59 59.4% upside ($33.59 - $21.07) / $21.07 = 59.4% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.26x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.41x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.77x on $14.89 tangible book, implying $26.33 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly