Citizens & Northern Corporation logo CZNC - Citizens & Northern Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $23.50
LOW: $23.50
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
UPSIDE: 1.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.5% below fair value
Current Price $23.08
Bear Case $15.50 32.8% downside ($15.50 - $23.08) / $23.08 = -32.8% ROTCE 6.6% → 1.04x TBV
Fair Value $28.66 24.2% upside ($28.66 - $23.08) / $23.08 = 24.2% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.92x TBV
Bull Case $36.56 58.4% upside ($36.56 - $23.08) / $23.08 = 58.4% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
6.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.55x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 6.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.92x on $14.89 tangible book, implying $28.66 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly