China Yuchai International Limited logo CYD - China Yuchai International Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $60.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $60.00
UPSIDE: 4.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.4% below fair value
Current Price $57.35
Bear Case $129.28 125.4% upside ($129.28 - $57.35) / $57.35 = 125.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $148.76 159.4% upside ($148.76 - $57.35) / $57.35 = 159.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $165.84 189.2% upside ($165.84 - $57.35) / $57.35 = 189.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 4.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $148.76 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1472 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions