China Yuchai International Limited logo CYD - China Yuchai International Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $60.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $60.00
UPSIDE: 29.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.6% below fair value
Current Price $46.19
Bear Case $117.69 154.8% upside ($117.69 - $46.19) / $46.19 = 154.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $134.39 190.9% upside ($134.39 - $46.19) / $46.19 = 190.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $148.98 222.5% upside ($148.98 - $46.19) / $46.19 = 222.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 31%
Implied Market Multiple 2.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) -19.2% vs our 5.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $134.39 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1476 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions