AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies China Yuchai International Limited as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CYD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is China Yuchai International Limited's fair value?

Fair value for CYD comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CYD?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CYD was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from CYD's most recent reported fundamentals.

CYD - China Yuchai International Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $60.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 10.7% above fair value

Current Price $36.73

Bear Case $29.04 20.9% downside ($29.04 - $36.73) / $36.73 = -20.9% $2.07 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $33.19 9.6% downside ($33.19 - $36.73) / $36.73 = -9.6% $2.07 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $37.34 1.7% upside ($37.34 - $36.73) / $36.73 = 1.7% $2.07 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

2.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 17.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.07, the base-case value is $33.19 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.20.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 99% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1490 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples