Crane NXT, Co. logo CXT - Crane NXT, Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $66.50
CONSENSUS: $70.75
UPSIDE: 38.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.5% above fair value
Current Price $50.95
Bear Case $38.28 24.9% downside ($38.28 - $50.95) / $50.95 = -24.9% $3.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $47.85 6.1% downside ($47.85 - $50.95) / $50.95 = -6.1% $3.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $57.42 12.7% upside ($57.42 - $50.95) / $50.95 = 12.7% $3.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.19, the base-case value is $47.85 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $70.75
Analyst Range $65.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $70.75 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples