Crane NXT, Co. logo CXT - Crane NXT, Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $66.50
CONSENSUS: $69.50
UPSIDE: 22.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.9% above fair value
Current Price $56.88
Bear Case $38.28 32.7% downside ($38.28 - $56.88) / $56.88 = -32.7% $3.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $47.85 15.9% downside ($47.85 - $56.88) / $56.88 = -15.9% $3.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $57.42 0.9% upside ($57.42 - $56.88) / $56.88 = 0.9% $3.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.19, the base-case value is $47.85 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $69.50
Analyst Range $60.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 31%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $69.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples