CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. logo CX - CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $12.75
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $13.73
UPSIDE: 10.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.0% above fair value
Current Price $12.48
Bear Case $8.77 29.7% downside ($8.77 - $12.48) / $12.48 = -29.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.45 8.3% downside ($11.45 - $12.48) / $12.48 = -8.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $13.84 10.9% upside ($13.84 - $12.48) / $12.48 = 10.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.9% vs our 6.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.73 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions