CVS - CVS Health Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$100.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$110.00
LOW:
$90.00
MEDIAN:
$101.00
CONSENSUS:
$100.33
UPSIDE:
7.58%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.8x
4.68$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.33 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.42 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 237%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 191% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $88.29 (above our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $100.33 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples