CVS Health Corp. logo CVS - CVS Health Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
2
BUY 33
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $104.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $106.00
CONSENSUS: $104.54
UPSIDE: 0.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.8% above fair value
Current Price $104.15
Bear Case $61.34 41.1% downside ($61.34 - $104.15) / $104.15 = -41.1% $4.68 × 11x P/E
Fair Value $76.68 26.4% downside ($76.68 - $104.15) / $104.15 = -26.4% $4.68 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $92.02 11.6% downside ($92.02 - $104.15) / $104.15 = -11.6% $4.68 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

13.8x
4.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $104.54 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.68 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 237%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 191% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $104.54 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples