CP ALL Public Company Limited logo CVPUF - CP ALL Public Company Limited

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.0% below fair value
Current Price $1.15
Bear Case $1.16 0.5% upside ($1.16 - $1.15) / $1.15 = 0.5% $0.09 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $1.39 20.5% upside ($1.39 - $1.15) / $1.15 = 20.5% $0.09 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $1.62 40.6% upside ($1.62 - $1.15) / $1.15 = 40.6% $0.09 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 153% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from THB into USD using USDTHB at 0.0298 USD per THB.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples