AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag CVLG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CVLG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value CVLG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from CVLG's most recent reported fundamentals.

CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 352.4% above fair value

Current Price $37.41

Bear Case $5.55 85.2% downside ($5.55 - $37.41) / $37.41 = -85.2% $1.81 × 4x + net cash

Fair Value $8.27 77.9% downside ($8.27 - $37.41) / $37.41 = -77.9% $1.81 × 6x + net cash

Bull Case $10.98 70.6% downside ($10.98 - $37.41) / $37.41 = -70.6% $1.81 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

5.5x

Normalized EPS

1.81$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.81)

Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.81 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.27 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.3x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing