Calavo Growers, Inc. logo CVGW - Calavo Growers, Inc.

Inactive Ticker CVGW is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 3.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.3% above fair value
Current Price $26.09
Bear Case $17.95 31.2% downside ($17.95 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -31.2% $2.13 × 8x P/E
Fair Value $22.44 14.0% downside ($22.44 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -14.0% $2.13 × 10x P/E
Bull Case $26.93 3.2% upside ($26.93 - $26.09) / $26.09 = 3.2% $2.13 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

10.0x
2.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.44 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples