Calavo Growers, Inc. logo CVGW - Calavo Growers, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 2.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.0% below fair value
Current Price $26.45
Bear Case $28.30 7.0% upside ($28.30 - $26.45) / $26.45 = 7.0% $2.13 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $34.37 29.9% upside ($34.37 - $26.45) / $26.45 = 29.9% $2.13 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $40.43 52.9% upside ($40.43 - $26.45) / $26.45 = 52.9% $2.13 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.37 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples