CVGW - Calavo Growers, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$27.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$27.00
LOW:
$27.00
MEDIAN:
$27.00
CONSENSUS:
$27.00
UPSIDE:
2.08%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.37 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples