Calavo Growers, Inc. logo CVGW - Calavo Growers, Inc.

Inactive Ticker CVGW is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $32.67
UPSIDE: 25.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 135.0% above fair value
Current Price $26.09
Bear Case $8.88 66.0% downside ($8.88 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -66.0% $1.11 × 8x P/E
Fair Value $11.10 57.5% downside ($11.10 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -57.5% $1.11 × 10x P/E
Bull Case $13.32 48.9% downside ($13.32 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -48.9% $1.11 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

10.0x
1.11$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.11, the base-case value is $11.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $32.67
Analyst Range $27.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 66%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $32.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples