Calavo Growers, Inc. logo CVGW - Calavo Growers, Inc.

Inactive Ticker CVGW is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $32.67
UPSIDE: 25.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.7% above fair value
Current Price $26.09
Bear Case $18.86 27.7% downside ($18.86 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -27.7% $2.13 × 8x P/E
Fair Value $23.57 9.6% downside ($23.57 - $26.09) / $26.09 = -9.6% $2.13 × 10x P/E
Bull Case $28.29 8.4% upside ($28.29 - $26.09) / $26.09 = 8.4% $2.13 × 12x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

10.0x
2.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.67 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.57 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples