AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Cavco Industries, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CVCO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Cavco Industries, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CVCO comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CVCO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CVCO was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from CVCO's most recent reported fundamentals.

CVCO - Cavco Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $700.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 46.5% above fair value

Current Price $562.60

Bear Case $298.76 46.9% downside ($298.76 - $562.60) / $562.60 = -46.9% $21.34 × 14x

Fair Value $384.12 31.7% downside ($384.12 - $562.60) / $562.60 = -31.7% $21.34 × 18x

Bull Case $469.48 16.6% downside ($469.48 - $562.60) / $562.60 = -16.6% $21.34 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

21.34$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($21.34)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 26.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $21.34 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $384.12 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.0x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing