Cavco Industries, Inc. logo CVCO - Cavco Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $475.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $495.00
LOW: $455.00
MEDIAN: $475.00
CONSENSUS: $475.00
DOWNSIDE: 6.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.6% above fair value
Current Price $509.17
Bear Case $330.01 35.2% downside ($330.01 - $509.17) / $509.17 = -35.2% $21.34 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $415.37 18.4% downside ($415.37 - $509.17) / $509.17 = -18.4% $21.34 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $500.73 1.7% downside ($500.73 - $509.17) / $509.17 = -1.7% $21.34 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
21.34$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($21.34)

Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $21.34 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $415.37 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.6x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing