Cavco Industries, Inc. logo CVCO - Cavco Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $700.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $700.00
LOW: $700.00
MEDIAN: $700.00
CONSENSUS: $700.00
UPSIDE: 19.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.9% above fair value
Current Price $585.49
Bear Case $330.22 43.6% downside ($330.22 - $585.49) / $585.49 = -43.6% $21.34 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $415.58 29.0% downside ($415.58 - $585.49) / $585.49 = -29.0% $21.34 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $500.94 14.4% downside ($500.94 - $585.49) / $585.49 = -14.4% $21.34 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
21.34$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($21.34)

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $21.34 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $415.58 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.2x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing