Cavco Industries, Inc. logo CVCO - Cavco Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $700.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $700.00
LOW: $700.00
MEDIAN: $700.00
CONSENSUS: $700.00
UPSIDE: 24.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.9% above fair value
Current Price $560.67
Bear Case $330.22 41.1% downside ($330.22 - $560.67) / $560.67 = -41.1% $21.34 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $415.58 25.9% downside ($415.58 - $560.67) / $560.67 = -25.9% $21.34 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $500.94 10.7% downside ($500.94 - $560.67) / $560.67 = -10.7% $21.34 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
21.34$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($21.34)

Implied Market Multiple 26.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $21.34 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $415.58 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.0x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing