Curbline Properties Corp. logo CURB - Curbline Properties Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $34.75
UPSIDE: 17.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72.8% above fair value
Current Price $29.68
Bear Case $13.93 53.1% downside ($13.93 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -53.1% $0.98 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $17.18 42.1% downside ($17.18 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -42.1% $0.98 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $20.42 31.2% downside ($20.42 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -31.2% $0.98 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
0.98$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.98) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 30.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.98 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.18 per share. Dividend yield: 2.3%. DDM cross-check: $12.86.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $34.75
Analyst Range $30.00 – $39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (25% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.75 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify