Curbline Properties Corp. logo CURB - Curbline Properties Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $28.50
UPSIDE: 0.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.9% above fair value
Current Price $28.32
Bear Case $16.53 41.6% downside ($16.53 - $28.32) / $28.32 = -41.6% $1.06 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $20.40 28.0% downside ($20.40 - $28.32) / $28.32 = -28.0% $1.06 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $24.27 14.3% downside ($24.27 - $28.32) / $28.32 = -14.3% $1.06 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.06$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.06) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 26.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.40 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify