CURB - Curbline Properties Corp.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$30.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$27.00
MEDIAN:
$31.00
CONSENSUS:
$30.25
DOWNSIDE:
2.39%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.98) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
31.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.25 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.88 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.25 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify