Curbline Properties Corp. logo CURB - Curbline Properties Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $33.67
UPSIDE: 6.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.5% above fair value
Current Price $31.56
Bear Case $16.69 47.1% downside ($16.69 - $31.56) / $31.56 = -47.1% $0.98 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $20.57 34.8% downside ($20.57 - $31.56) / $31.56 = -34.8% $0.98 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $24.46 22.5% downside ($24.46 - $31.56) / $31.56 = -22.5% $0.98 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
0.98$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.98) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 32.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.67 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.57 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.86 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.67 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify