Curbline Properties Corp. logo CURB - Curbline Properties Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $34.40
UPSIDE: 19.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 74.4% above fair value
Current Price $28.86
Bear Case $13.43 53.5% downside ($13.43 - $28.86) / $28.86 = -53.5% $0.93 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $16.54 42.7% downside ($16.54 - $28.86) / $28.86 = -42.7% $0.93 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $19.66 31.9% downside ($19.66 - $28.86) / $28.86 = -31.9% $0.93 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
0.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.93) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 31.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.93 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $16.54 per share. Dividend yield: 2.4%. DDM cross-check: $13.05.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $34.40
Analyst Range $30.00 – $39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $34.40 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify