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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $43.50
CONSENSUS: $44.13
UPSIDE: 11.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.5% below fair value
Current Price $39.50
Bear Case $56.73 43.6% upside ($56.73 - $39.50) / $39.50 = 43.6% $2.61 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $68.65 73.8% upside ($68.65 - $39.50) / $39.50 = 73.8% $2.61 FFO × 28x
Bull Case $80.57 104.0% upside ($80.57 - $39.50) / $39.50 = 104.0% $2.61 FFO × 33x

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.61) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.61 FFO/share with a 28x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $68.65 per share. Dividend yield: 5.4%. DDM cross-check: $59.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $44.13
Analyst Range $41.00 – $47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.13 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify