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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $43.50
CONSENSUS: $43.38
UPSIDE: 12.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 43.8% below fair value
Current Price $38.58
Bear Case $56.74 47.1% upside ($56.74 - $38.58) / $38.58 = 47.1% $2.62 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $68.66 78.0% upside ($68.66 - $38.58) / $38.58 = 78.0% $2.62 FFO × 28x
Bull Case $80.58 108.9% upside ($80.58 - $38.58) / $38.58 = 108.9% $2.62 FFO × 33x

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
2.62$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.62) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.62 FFO/share with a 28x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $68.66 per share. Dividend yield: 5.5%. DDM cross-check: $59.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $43.38
Analyst Range $38.00 – $47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 58%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.38 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify