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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $40.50
CONSENSUS: $40.33
UPSIDE: 0.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.7% below fair value
Current Price $40.07
Bear Case $52.60 31.3% upside ($52.60 - $40.07) / $40.07 = 31.3% $2.60 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $64.30 60.5% upside ($64.30 - $40.07) / $40.07 = 60.5% $2.60 FFO × 28x
Bull Case $75.99 89.6% upside ($75.99 - $40.07) / $40.07 = 89.6% $2.60 FFO × 33x

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
2.6$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.60) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.30 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify