CubeSmart logo CUBE - CubeSmart

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $42.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $42.86
UPSIDE: 7.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.3% below fair value
Current Price $40.05
Bear Case $53.12 32.6% upside ($53.12 - $40.05) / $40.05 = 32.6% $2.60 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $64.93 62.1% upside ($64.93 - $40.05) / $40.05 = 62.1% $2.60 FFO × 28x
Bull Case $76.74 91.6% upside ($76.74 - $40.05) / $40.05 = 91.6% $2.60 FFO × 33x

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
2.6$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.60) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.86 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.93 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.86 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 69% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify