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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.43
UPSIDE: 6.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.3% below fair value
Current Price $40.91
Bear Case $53.40 30.5% upside ($53.40 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 30.5% $2.61 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $65.26 59.5% upside ($65.26 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 59.5% $2.61 FFO × 28x
Bull Case $77.13 88.5% upside ($77.13 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 88.5% $2.61 FFO × 33x

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.61) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.43 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.26 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.43 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 67% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify