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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $67.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $67.00
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $67.00
UPSIDE: 17.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.1% below fair value
Current Price $57.18
Bear Case $47.77 16.5% downside ($47.77 - $57.18) / $57.18 = -16.5% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $65.06 13.8% upside ($65.06 - $57.18) / $57.18 = 13.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $82.10 43.6% upside ($82.10 - $57.18) / $57.18 = 43.6% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 19.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.5% vs our 10.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $65.06 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions