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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.0% below fair value
Current Price $62.32
Bear Case $62.43 0.2% upside ($62.43 - $62.32) / $62.32 = 0.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.55 69.4% upside ($105.55 - $62.32) / $62.32 = 69.4% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $156.20 150.6% upside ($156.20 - $62.32) / $62.32 = 150.6% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 22.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.55 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions