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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.2% below fair value
Current Price $61.01
Bear Case $62.43 2.3% upside ($62.43 - $61.01) / $61.01 = 2.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.55 73.0% upside ($105.55 - $61.01) / $61.01 = 73.0% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $156.20 156.0% upside ($156.20 - $61.01) / $61.01 = 156.0% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 21.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.0% vs our 17.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.55 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions