Centuri Holdings, Inc. logo CTRI - Centuri Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $41.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $37.00
UPSIDE: 43.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 48.3% above fair value
Current Price $25.87
Bear Case $15.26 41.0% downside ($15.26 - $25.87) / $25.87 = -41.0% $0.78 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $17.44 32.6% downside ($17.44 - $25.87) / $25.87 = -32.6% $0.78 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $19.62 24.2% downside ($19.62 - $25.87) / $25.87 = -24.2% $0.78 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.1x
0.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.44 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 211%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples