Cintas Corporation logo CTAS - Cintas Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $241.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $250.00
LOW: $228.00
MEDIAN: $245.00
CONSENSUS: $241.00
UPSIDE: 41.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 25.5% above fair value
Current Price $170.85
Bear Case $95.34 44.2% downside ($95.34 - $170.85) / $170.85 = -44.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $136.11 20.3% downside ($136.11 - $170.85) / $170.85 = -20.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $177.29 3.8% upside ($177.29 - $170.85) / $170.85 = 3.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 42.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $241.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.11 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $241.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions