Cintas Corporation logo CTAS - Cintas Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 16
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $231.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $250.00
LOW: $214.00
MEDIAN: $230.50
CONSENSUS: $231.25
UPSIDE: 13.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.4% above fair value
Current Price $204.22
Bear Case $95.96 53.0% downside ($95.96 - $204.22) / $204.22 = -53.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $130.60 36.0% downside ($130.60 - $204.22) / $204.22 = -36.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $164.27 19.6% downside ($164.27 - $204.22) / $204.22 = -19.6% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 47.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.4% vs our 9.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $231.25 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.60 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $231.25 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions