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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 195.4% above fair value
Current Price $52.90
Bear Case $13.96 73.6% downside ($13.96 - $52.90) / $52.90 = -73.6% $1.58 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $17.91 66.1% downside ($17.91 - $52.90) / $52.90 = -66.1% $1.58 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $21.86 58.7% downside ($21.86 - $52.90) / $52.90 = -58.7% $1.58 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
1.58$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.58)

Implied Market Multiple 33.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.58 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $17.91 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 6.6x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 6.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing