CSW Industrials, Inc. logo CSW - CSW Industrials, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $322.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $378.00
LOW: $280.00
MEDIAN: $302.00
CONSENSUS: $322.20
UPSIDE: 15.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.6% below fair value
Current Price $278.00
Bear Case $200.79 27.8% downside ($200.79 - $278.00) / $278.00 = -27.8% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $337.18 21.3% upside ($337.18 - $278.00) / $278.00 = 21.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $500.14 79.9% upside ($500.14 - $278.00) / $278.00 = 79.9% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 31.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $322.20 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $337.18 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions