Carriage Services, Inc. logo CSV - Carriage Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 6
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $48.00
UPSIDE: 38.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.1% below fair value
Current Price $34.57
Bear Case $39.00 12.8% upside ($39.00 - $34.57) / $34.57 = 12.8% $3.25 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $48.75 41.0% upside ($48.75 - $34.57) / $34.57 = 41.0% $3.25 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $58.50 69.2% upside ($58.50 - $34.57) / $34.57 = 69.2% $3.25 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.25$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.25, the base-case value is $48.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $6.49.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $48.00
Analyst Range $46.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $6.49 (below our primary estimate by 87%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples