Centerspace logo CSR - Centerspace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $57.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $62.25
UPSIDE: 17.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.3% below fair value
Current Price $52.90
Bear Case $124.94 136.2% upside ($124.94 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 136.2% $7.79 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $148.24 180.2% upside ($148.24 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 180.2% $7.79 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $171.53 224.3% upside ($171.53 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 224.3% $7.79 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
7.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.79) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $7.79 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $148.24 per share. Dividend yield: 5.8%. DDM cross-check: $45.42.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $62.25
Analyst Range $57.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 138%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $45.42 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 138% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify