Centerspace logo CSR - Centerspace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $69.00
CONSENSUS: $68.67
UPSIDE: 22.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.8% below fair value
Current Price $55.92
Bear Case $111.62 99.6% upside ($111.62 - $55.92) / $55.92 = 99.6% $7.79 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $132.45 136.8% upside ($132.45 - $55.92) / $55.92 = 136.8% $7.79 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $153.26 174.0% upside ($153.26 - $55.92) / $55.92 = 174.0% $7.79 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
7.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.79) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.45 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $45.92 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify