Centerspace logo CSR - Centerspace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $69.00
CONSENSUS: $68.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.6% below fair value
Current Price $68.24
Bear Case $111.83 63.9% upside ($111.83 - $68.24) / $68.24 = 63.9% $7.79 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $132.69 94.4% upside ($132.69 - $68.24) / $68.24 = 94.4% $7.79 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $153.54 125.0% upside ($153.54 - $68.24) / $68.24 = 125.0% $7.79 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
7.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.79) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.69 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $47.49 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify