Centerspace logo CSR - Centerspace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $63.50
CONSENSUS: $64.25
UPSIDE: 15.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.6% below fair value
Current Price $55.73
Bear Case $110.88 99.0% upside ($110.88 - $55.73) / $55.73 = 99.0% $7.79 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $131.56 136.1% upside ($131.56 - $55.73) / $55.73 = 136.1% $7.79 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $152.24 173.2% upside ($152.24 - $55.73) / $55.73 = 173.2% $7.79 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
7.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.79) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $131.56 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $45.92 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 131% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify