CSR - Centerspace
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$62.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$70.00
LOW:
$57.00
MEDIAN:
$61.00
CONSENSUS:
$62.25
UPSIDE:
17.67%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
24.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($7.79) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Plain-Language Summary
At $7.79 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $148.24 per share. Dividend yield: 5.8%. DDM cross-check: $45.42.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$62.25
Analyst Range
$57.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
138%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $45.42 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 138% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify