Centerspace logo CSR - Centerspace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $57.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $63.50
UPSIDE: 10.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.6% below fair value
Current Price $57.45
Bear Case $126.20 119.7% upside ($126.20 - $57.45) / $57.45 = 119.7% $7.87 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $149.73 160.6% upside ($149.73 - $57.45) / $57.45 = 160.6% $7.87 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $173.27 201.6% upside ($173.27 - $57.45) / $57.45 = 201.6% $7.87 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
7.87$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.87) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $7.87 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $149.73 per share. Dividend yield: 5.4%. DDM cross-check: $45.42.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $63.50
Analyst Range $57.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 136%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $45.42 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $63.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 136% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify