Carlisle Companies Incorporated logo CSL - Carlisle Companies Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $408.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $425.00
LOW: $360.00
MEDIAN: $425.00
CONSENSUS: $408.75
UPSIDE: 22.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.1% above fair value
Current Price $333.80
Bear Case $222.69 33.3% downside ($222.69 - $333.80) / $333.80 = -33.3% $17.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $300.51 10.0% downside ($300.51 - $333.80) / $333.80 = -10.0% $17.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $378.33 13.3% upside ($378.33 - $333.80) / $333.80 = 13.3% $17.12 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
17.12$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($17.12)

Implied Market Multiple 19.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $408.75 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $300.51 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $408.75 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing