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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.3% below fair value
Current Price $5.36
Bear Case $12.65 135.9% upside ($12.65 - $5.36) / $5.36 = 135.9% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $18.07 237.1% upside ($18.07 - $5.36) / $5.36 = 237.1% ROTCE 2.4% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $23.49 338.2% upside ($23.49 - $5.36) / $5.36 = 338.2% ROTCE 2.8% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

2.4%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (2.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.07x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 2.4% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $1.74 tangible book, implying $18.07 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (2.4%) is below the minimum investors require (6.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly