CoStar Group, Inc. logo CSGP - CoStar Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $36.36
UPSIDE: 12.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 104.9% above fair value
Current Price $32.28
Bear Case $12.61 61.0% downside ($12.61 - $32.28) / $32.28 = -61.0% $0.74 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $15.76 51.2% downside ($15.76 - $32.28) / $32.28 = -51.2% $0.74 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $18.91 41.4% downside ($18.91 - $32.28) / $32.28 = -41.4% $0.74 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.3x
0.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 43.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.74, the base-case value is $15.76 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $36.36
Analyst Range $26.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 4358%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.36 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 65% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples