Cisco Systems, Inc. logo CSCO - Cisco Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 38
HOLD 34
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $123.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $137.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $130.00
CONSENSUS: $123.80
UPSIDE: 5.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 66.6% above fair value
Current Price $117.09
Bear Case $56.22 52.0% downside ($56.22 - $117.09) / $117.09 = -52.0% $2.76 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $70.27 40.0% downside ($70.27 - $117.09) / $117.09 = -40.0% $2.76 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $84.33 28.0% downside ($84.33 - $117.09) / $117.09 = -28.0% $2.76 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.76$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 42.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.80 from 73 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.27 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $28.46 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $123.80 (from 73 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples