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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 140.4% above fair value
Current Price $79.61
Bear Case $23.18 70.9% downside ($23.18 - $79.61) / $79.61 = -70.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.64x TBV
Fair Value $33.12 58.4% downside ($33.12 - $79.61) / $79.61 = -58.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.47x TBV
Bull Case $43.06 45.9% downside ($43.06 - $79.61) / $79.61 = -45.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.9%
10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.9%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 11.26x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.9% vs. 10.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.47x on $7.07 tangible book, implying $33.12 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly