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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 107.4% above fair value
Current Price $68.68
Bear Case $23.18 66.2% downside ($23.18 - $68.68) / $68.68 = -66.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.88x TBV
Fair Value $33.12 51.8% downside ($33.12 - $68.68) / $68.68 = -51.8% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.78x TBV
Bull Case $43.06 37.3% downside ($43.06 - $68.68) / $68.68 = -37.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.9%
9.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 9.81x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.9% vs. 9.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.78x on $7.00 tangible book, implying $33.12 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly