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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 85.2% above fair value
Current Price $61.34
Bear Case $23.18 62.2% downside ($23.18 - $61.34) / $61.34 = -62.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.82x TBV
Fair Value $33.12 46.0% downside ($33.12 - $61.34) / $61.34 = -46.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $43.06 29.8% downside ($43.06 - $61.34) / $61.34 = -29.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.9%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 8.76x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.9% vs. 9.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $7.00 tangible book, implying $33.12 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly